Doom 4: End of the Game Industry?

[ Slobodan Miskovic @ 26.06.2005. 16:22 ] @

Am I the only one who expects a collapse of the gaming business soon? Does anyone else think that it is overdue? It has happened before, and I can't see how people will keep shelling out $50 or so for a video game when the games have hardly changed since the invention of the first-person shooter.

I complain to my kids about this, and they insist that things have changed markedly. They show me examples, and all I see are tweaks and weirder, mostly stupid weapons.

I'm not the only one who thinks there's a problem. When Nintendo president Satoru Iwata spoke at this year's Game Developers Conference in San Francisco, he discussed the lack of new game ideas. He saw the same things that I see: There are four or five simple game categories and nothing really new or different.

The categories are shooters, puzzles and mazes, adventure games, sports games, and simulations. That's it. Most of today's hottest games are combinations of two or three of these categories, with a storyline added to keep the players from being bored stiff. When my kids show me a game, I usually say that it's nothing but the same old running-jumping-kicking-shooting with a new background. They leave in a huff.

Iwata mentioned that in almost all the big games, the so-called boss characters are all beginning to be pretty much the same: big, creepy monsters. If you want to see exactly how inane this is, go out and rent the brain-dead Paul Verhoeven film, Starship Troopers. The movie stank so bad that nothing came of it after its release. It's essentially a video game turned into a movie—all the elements are there, including an idiotic "boss" that is just some huge flabby bug—and it shows you just how lame these games actually are.

Iwata then showed us a couple of supposedly new (but in fact, rather old) ideas— two concept games that will be released later this year for the incredibly popular Nintendo DS handheld game machine. One is a pet dog that "lives" inside the machine. You can train this dog with voice commands, and you can literally pet the thing on the touch-sensitive screen.

Virtual-pet software has come and gone on the PC over the years, so except for the voice commands, this is nothing new. It's also quite similar to the once-popular Tamagotchi gizmo that was all the rage in Japan.

When two wireless DS machines run this app, the dogs can visit each other in one of the machines. Someone just needs to do a patch to get them to fight and kill each other, or mate and have puppies, for this idea really to catch on: "Only Available on the Nintendo DS-XXX!"

The other idea that Iwata presented is music-making software that creates tunes on the DS. This sort of thing appeared on the Macintosh years ago—and even resulted in a weird toy guitar called the Jaminator—so this is nothing new, either. The game scene is resorting to faddish ideas from years ago to try to appear original. I'm surprised they haven't come out with Pet Rock software yet.

None of this will save a doomed industry. The business is going to attempt to sustain growth and creativity by making game players buy newer and newer machines. Computer gaming has always been sustained by never-ending improvements in resolution and realism. But once we get to photorealism, what is going to sustain growth?

That time is drawing near. We are already getting pre-hype for the PlayStation 3 and the Xbox 2, as well as the new Nintendo. All this will do is make the visuals more lifelike and the blood and gore more realistic and nauseating. While the kids who are used to this "progress" may not be put off by it, newcomers may be repulsed and skip these new generations of machines altogether.

If that doesn't flatten the market, the never-ending need to satisfy the demanding full-time game-player should do it. Some of today's games are ridiculously hard to play—unless gaming is your so-called life—and so daunting to casual players that they will quickly reject them. Who needs to devote themselves to a game just to play it once in a while? I'll take Spider Solitaire instead.

I really can't imagine this scene continuing as it is for much longer. I suspect that the next generation of machines will be the last—or at least the last in the current boom market. It will be downhill from there.

John C. Dvorak - PC MAGAZINE

_{[Ovu poruku je menjao STELLANOVA dana 26.06.2005. u 17:23 GMT+1]}

[ Lord_Sauron @ 26.06.2005. 21:08 ] @

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If you want to see exactly how inane this is, go out and rent the brain-dead Paul Verhoeven film, Starship Troopers. The movie stank so bad that nothing came of it after its release.

Ja se sa ovim ne slažem.

Takođe ni sam tekst nema neku poentu, John C. Dvorak se izgleda baš brine što će ta grana industije da navodno propadne. Kad je liku dosta Spider Solitare (ajde da je rekao sokoban ;), što se toliko uzbuđuje oko tog "neumitnog kolapsa igračke industrije". Lik

_{[Ovu poruku je menjao Lord_Sauron dana 26.06.2005. u 22:16 GMT+1]}

[ bkaradzic @ 26.06.2005. 22:47 ] @

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Computer gaming has always been sustained by never-ending improvements in resolution and realism. But once we get to photorealism, what is going to sustain growth?

Ovi tekstovi o propadanju industrije igara zbog nedostatka kreativnosti i onda tekstovi o tome kako industrija igara zarađuje više od Holivuda se smenjuju jednom godišnje... U principu niti će industrija igara propasti, niti će se rast zaustaviti. Još uvek tržište za igre je SAD, Japan i Zapadna Evropa, znači ima dovoljno onih koji tek treba da postanu tržište za rast industrije. Takođe igre verovatno nikada neće zameniti filmove, jer je uvek lakše odgledati 2h film, nego odigrati 10h igru. Svako zna da ubaci DVD u player i sedne i gleda film, za dosta ljudi problem je uzeti kontroler i igrati igru.

Čuo sam već par puta šalu da roditelji sada kažu deci: "ostavi igre i idi gledaj malo TV." :)

[ Vladimir P. Filipovic @ 27.06.2005. 08:43 ] @

Da ce propasti, ne verujem. Samo me prilicno plasi mogucnost odumiranja malih developera u korist tri-cetiri giganta.

Da je do zla boga lose to sto iz se iz trzisnih razloga stalno prave iste igre, jeste.

Da je Starship Troopers los i "brain dead" film - je li taj Dvorak normalan?

(A sto se tice istorije tamagotchija i virtual petova, http://www.mobygames.com/game/c64/little-computer-people )

U stvari, sad kapiram da se slazem sa vecinom njegovih zalbi i kenjkanja, samo se ne slazem sasvim sa prognozama.

[ reject @ 27.06.2005. 10:34 ] @

Kao i u filmskoj industriji, imamo igre koja su cista konfekcija
(Rainbow6, Fifa, NHL ... ) i koje ne donose nista novo, ali
svake godine izdadje barem 5 takvih igara. S druge strane
imamo igre koje stvarno donose do sad ne vidjene stvari
(The Sims, GTA) ali njih ima neuporedivo manje. Filmska
industrija ne propada zato sto godisnje izbaci 5-6 romanticnih
komedija i jedan film vredan gledanja. Isto tako, ni igracka
industrija nece propasti zbog glupavih igara.

Evo jedne relativno originalne ideje:
http://www1.gamespot.com/pc/action/baddayla/
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/04/25/news_6122825.html

[ bkaradzic @ 27.06.2005. 17:43 ] @

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Vladimir P. Filipovic: Da je do zla boga lose to sto iz se iz trzisnih razloga stalno prave iste igre, jeste.

Ali tržište traži stalno to isto. Sada šta je tržište... To su oni što hoće da igraju NFL ili Madden igre, i odu u prodavnicu i kupe te igre. Tržište nisu oni što kao hoće nešto originalno, a onda umesto to da kupe u prodavnici to warezuju. Čak i da svi kupuju igre, te originalne igre bi imale manji deo tržišta. Što znači da bi trebale da budu skuplje od ovih drugih, što se prodaju u milionskim tiražima po defaultu. Ali to bi samo pogoršalo situaciju u vezi piraterije. Čak i velike kompanije nemaju ništa protiv inovacije u igrama, ali jedino o čemu oni vode računa je zarada i njihova odgovornost prema investitorima. Investitora ne zanima koliko je nešto originalno, nego koliko će novca da zaradi. I onda se ide linijom manjeg otpora i nudi se ono što je već provereno i što sigurno zarađuje novac.

[ bkaradzic @ 27.06.2005. 17:46 ] @

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Evo jedne relativno originalne ideje:
http://www1.gamespot.com/pc/action/baddayla/
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/04/25/news_6122825.html

Ako uopšte ikada izađe, ovo će da propadne žešće na tržištu...

[ bkaradzic @ 27.06.2005. 21:26 ] @

Evo još malo na ovu temu...
http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/2...x.htm?section=money_commentary

[ NastyBoy @ 27.06.2005. 23:16 ] @

I to sve dolazi iz pera g. Dvoraka, iznova dokazanog fataliste koji oduvek samo "bitching about stuff".

Novih ideja ima, samo ljudi poput Dvoraka, koji ne prate scenu, i ne chuju za njih jer nisu mainstream. Recimo, Katamari Damacy - igra novijeg datuma, ekstra zarazna i prilichno originalna.Ustvari, veliki broj japanskih igara (ko ima srece da ih importuje) su prilichno originalne, ako ne zhanrovski, ono bar koncepcijski.
Ono shto je Dvorak propustio da kazhe je da game-industrija postaje prava 'industrija' - trzhishte je vec formiralo svoje zahteve, malo je kasno da se forsira drugachiji nachin razmishljanja, narochito kod zapadnjaka. Tako je vec u svakoj industriji (primer - Renault VelSatis, originalan auto, neobichan, pravo osvezhenje... i prava katastrofa na trzhishtu).

Ma, mozhe o ovome da se razglaba do letnji dan u podne, ali nema poente...

[ JimRainor @ 28.06.2005. 00:32 ] @

Ljudi stalno zele da vide isto jer ih nove stvari cine da se osecaju glupim, a stare ih cine da se osecaju sigurnim (iz futurame). Man am I sick of this Earth.
Medjutim, prednost igara sa originalnom idejom je u tome sto ne mora da se toliko investira u grafiku jer ista onima koji takve svari igraju obicno i nije mnogo bitna, sto znaci da se moze koristiti i neki free graficki engine i da ce broj ljudi potreban da se uradi posao biti manji. To takodje znaci da ce igra zauzimati manje prostora na hardu a ,kako je internet sve brzi i brzi, te igre ce se moci i downloadovati sa sajta, sto je mnogo lakse nego otici u prodavnicu i ljudi ce se sve vise navikavati da tako pazare.
Osim toga, pravilo koje sam naveo na pocetku ne vazi uvek: u Francuskoj je film kocka bio gledaniji od Star Warsa, sto znaci da jos ima nacija koje cene i inovacije.
Niko ne kaze da cemo jednog dana srusiti velike firme or something, ali da cemo postojati paralelno sa njima jos duze vreme, u to nema sumnje.

[ reject @ 28.06.2005. 11:30 ] @

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bkaradzic: Ako uopšte ikada izađe, ovo će da propadne žešće na tržištu...

Naravno, to se podrazumeva, ali bih svakako voleo da je odigram. :)

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http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/2...x.htm?section=money_commentary:
Remakes and clones might put some change in your coffers in the short term, but you lose respect and credibility from your customers each time you do so.

Bilo bi divno da je ovo tacno, ali mislim da Homer Simpson moze odigrati
nebrojeno klonova iste igre bez da mu zasmeta, a Homer je 70% trzista.

_{[Ovu poruku je menjao reject dana 28.06.2005. u 12:35 GMT+1]}

[ Vladimir P. Filipovic @ 28.06.2005. 11:39 ] @

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bkaradzic: Ali tržište traži stalno to isto. Sada šta je tržište... To su oni što hoće da igraju NFL ili Madden igre, i odu u prodavnicu i kupe te igre.

Slazem se, i ne krivim previse ni proizvodjace ni potrosace. Samo velim da je to stanje lose.

Nedavno sam video jednu igru iz prosle godine, "Perimeter". Futuristicka strategija, neki Rusi pravili. Nisam imao prilike da se nesto udubim u nju, ali u sustini, par stvarno originalnih ideja u inace oprobanom zanru, jednostavan koncept i odlicna realizacija. Pomislio bih da ce biti najveci hit te godine kad se pojavila, kad ono... izgleda da na kraju skoro niko nije ni cuo za nju. Corak. I to je samo jedan primer.

Ljudi hoce da potrose svojih nekoliko desetina dolara na igru za koju znaju da ce im se svideti...

[ JimRainor @ 28.06.2005. 11:41 ] @

Pa i ti Homeri Simpsoni bi da budu cool, pa samo treba da kod njih napravimo utisak da je cool biti protiv nastavaka i rimejkova i sve ce biti dobro. Uf jako bi mi dobro dosli mentat skilovi iz Dine.

[ bkaradzic @ 28.06.2005. 18:42 ] @

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JimRainor: Pa i ti Homeri Simpsoni bi da budu cool, pa samo treba da kod njih napravimo utisak da je cool biti protiv nastavaka i rimejkova i sve ce biti dobro.

Lakše je prilagoditi se tržištu, nego ga menjati.

[ JimRainor @ 29.06.2005. 00:54 ] @

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bkaradzic: Lakše je prilagoditi se tržištu, nego ga menjati.

Ako nisi primetio bio sam blago sarkastican. Ali zaista, ako nemas licencu na neki dobar original, onda je lakse (pomalo) menjati trziste, iako ni od toga nema puno vajde.

_{[Ovu poruku je menjao JimRainor dana 29.06.2005. u 01:57 GMT+1]}

[ bkaradzic @ 29.06.2005. 01:44 ] @

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JimRainor: Ako nisi primetio bio sam blago sarkastican. Ali zaista, ako nemas licencu na neki dobar original, onda je lakse (pomalo) menjati trziste, iako ni od toga nema puno vajde.

Nisam primetio sarkazam...

Ovo što kažeš u zadnjoj rečenici nema mnogo logike.

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ako nemas licencu na neki dobar original

Ili je licenca ili je original.

Menjati tržište znači da si spreman da potrošiš sumanutu količinu novca da bi prilagodio sebi tržište. To je ono što Microsoft radi sa Xbox-om već godinama... Od kada postoji Xbox imali su samo jedan profitabilan kvartal i to prošle godine kada je Halo 2 izašao!!! I to rade jer hoće da kupe tržište. Pogledaj samo XBOX360, po nekim procenama MS poklanja oko $600 po prodatom XBOX360 samo da bi zadobio tržište. Ti kao pojedinac nemaš nikakve šanse da uradiš ništa što bi tržište pomerilo ni za milimetar, tako da je skroz ludost uopšte razmišljati u tom pravcu.

Takođe prilagođavanje tržištu o kojem ja pričam je tzv. niche tržište. Znači cilj je pronaći onaj neiskorišćeni deo tržišta koji velikim kompanijama nije zanimljiv jer ne generiše dovoljno novca, ali bi malim firmama mogao da predstavlja značajan izvor prihoda. Recimo ono što radi Industry sa PDA je po meni interesantan izbor (ne znam nikakve detalje, tako da ne mogu da kažem da li je i dobar, ali definitivno je interesantan).

Evo i malo teorije u vezi niche tržišta:

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The Long Tail

Forget squeezing millions from a few megahits at the top of the charts. The future of entertainment is in the millions of niche markets at the shallow end of the bitstream.

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.10/tail.html

[ bkaradzic @ 29.06.2005. 18:00 ] @

Evo šta kaže EA CFO o originalnim igrama:

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Q: The two biggest games last year were Grand Theft Auto and Halo, both of which were essentially original intellectual property for both companies that came out with them. How important is it for you to develop more original intellectual property in house, as opposed to licensing the property?

I think ownership of IP is a huge deal. Continuing to build our portfolio of owned intellectual properties is an absolute strategic priority. In the context of EA, our business is one-third sports, one-third licenses and a third owned-IP. If we did a little over $3 billion in revenue last year, that's a pretty big owned-IP portfolio. Now, in the broader context, if that were to stand alone as a company, it would be pretty substantial. When you look at our owned IP, we have the Sims, the best-selling PC game ever, Need for Speed, Medal of Honor and Command & Conquer.

http://www.thestreet.com/_goog...ks/troywolverton/10229882.html

[ bkaradzic @ 30.06.2005. 00:32 ] @

Još jedan svež primer originalne igre i reakcije tržišta:

Psychonauts - XBOX Avg Ratio: 91%
http://www.gamerankings.com/htmlpages2/561517.asp

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Tim Schafer has a loyal legion of fanboys for good reason. The creator of PC classics Full Throttle and Grim Fandango is one of the most innovative game designers in the industry. Previously, Schafer worked at LucasArts, but left the company a half-decade ago to start his own company, Double Fine Productions. After a long journey that involved multiple publishers and a slow development process, Psychonauts has finally landed on story shelves.

http://xbox.ign.com/articles/606/606977p1.html

I reakcije tržišta:

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Game publisher Majesco's bid to become a higher-profile outfit has taken a temporary setback, after potentially disappointing sales of high-profile titles Psychonauts and Advent Rising were cited by an analyst as a reason to downgrade the company's stock rating, and a single-day shareprice dive resulted.

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JMP Securities analyst Ingrid Ebeling wrote in her report that, according to sales data she had received, Advent Rising did well in its initial release, but slowed down afterward due to somewhat unflattering game reviews and word-of-mouth. The Xbox release of Psychonauts, meanwhile, never found the mass audience its large ad campaign was intended to draw, and ended up as more of a niche title.

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=5815

_{[Ovu poruku je menjao bkaradzic dana 30.06.2005. u 01:33 GMT+1]}

[ JimRainor @ 30.06.2005. 16:28 ] @

Kao prvo, dobro je sto si onim linkom ( http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.10/tail.html )potvrdio moje uvernje o rastucoj moci interneta i manjih naslova. Kao drugo konzole nikad nisu ni bile bas neko "intelektualno" trziste. Videcemo kako ce psihonauti proci na PC. Kao trece meni se psihonauti bas i nisu previse dopali. Nije bas onoliko originalno koliko se prica. Kao cetvrto sitniji, posto nemaju $$ za grafiku i ostalo, i nemaju drugog izbora nego da prave originalno.

_{[Ovu poruku je menjao JimRainor dana 30.06.2005. u 17:30 GMT+1]}

[ Filip Strugar @ 09.07.2005. 14:59 ] @

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Vladimir P. Filipovic: Nedavno sam video jednu igru iz prosle godine, "Perimeter". Futuristicka strategija, neki Rusi pravili. Nisam imao prilike da se nesto udubim u nju, ali u sustini, par stvarno originalnih ideja u inace oprobanom zanru, jednostavan koncept i odlicna realizacija. Pomislio bih da ce biti najveci hit te godine kad se pojavila, kad ono... izgleda da na kraju skoro niko nije ni cuo za nju. Corak. I to je samo jedan primer.

Moram da napravim komentar, doduse sa zakasnjenjem, ja sam imao prilike da igram taj Perimeter, zainteresovala me je bas zato sto je izgledala kao nesto novo i - totalno je s*****. Ni trunka neke ozbiljnije strategije, lose upravljanje, nepregledna, bagovi, i ubiboze dosadna. Odigrao sam par nivoa iz kampanje i dalje stvarno nisam mogao, waste of time :)

[ Vladimir P. Filipovic @ 11.07.2005. 08:27 ] @

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Filip Strugar: ja sam imao prilike da igram taj Perimeter... totalno je s*****.

Ako ti kazes, verujem. Kao sto rekoh, nisam se nesto udubio u nju. Steta, propade mi primer, ali mislim da logika i dalje stoji.